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In 2025, U.S. and Canadian cargo theft losses hit an estimated $725 million, up about 60% from 2024, with the average theft at $273,990. The first half of 2026 has already topped $359 million, and the average stolen load has jumped to about $341,518, even as the number of thefts falls. The driver in both years is strategic theft: impersonation, fictitious pickups, and unauthorized re-brokering aimed at high-value freight. Sources: Verisk CargoNet, 2025 annual and 2026 mid-year analyses.
Figures from Verisk CargoNet's 2025 annual and 2026 mid-year supply chain risk analyses (United States and Canada). See sources.
The headline: losses jumped while volume held flat
The single most important number is the gap between two of them. Event counts barely changed, from 3,607 in 2024 to 3,594 in 2025, yet estimated losses rose roughly 60% to about $725 million. That divergence tells you the problem is not that theft got more common. It got more expensive per hit. The average value per theft climbed 36% in a single year, to $273,990. Fewer low-value grabs, more carefully chosen, high-value loads.
2026 so far: fewer thefts, far bigger losses
The trend carried straight into 2026, harder. Verisk CargoNet estimates losses topped $359 million in the first half of the year, with the average stolen load rising to about $341,518. The second quarter alone accounted for an estimated $304.6 million, more than double the same quarter a year earlier, even though the number of thefts fell. Organized groups leaned further into high-value metals such as copper and into enterprise electronics like server components and networking gear. The takeaway for anyone tendering freight is that a single loss now carries a much larger price tag than the raw theft counts suggest.
What "strategic theft" means, and why it drove the surge
CargoNet attributes much of the value spike to a shift toward strategic cargo theft, which relies on deception rather than a broken lock. Criminals impersonate a legitimate carrier, book loads under stolen or spoofed identities, stage fictitious pickups, or re-broker a load without authorization. In each case the freight is handed over willingly, because the credentials and paperwork look right. That is what makes it effective and hard to spot: onboarding checks confirm an entity is real, not that the truck backing into the dock is that entity.
When a load is taken through impersonation or unauthorized re-brokering, the shipper still looks to the broker to make it right, and a certificate of insurance from the impostor is worth nothing. Confirming coverage and the assigned driver and truck at the source keys off the genuine policy the impostor does not control, which is one of the few checks the deception has trouble surviving.
What is being targeted
The mix in 2025 leaned toward goods that are easy to resell and hard to trace. Food and beverage saw the largest jump in volume, with 708 incidents, a 47% increase over 2024. Metal theft rose 77% year over year, driven in large part by sustained demand for copper. High-value, in-demand commodities are exactly the ones a strategic thief studies a load board to find.
Where it is happening
The map moved too. CargoNet reported an 11% decline in Los Angeles County, historically the epicenter, while activity climbed in lower-profile regions: Kern County rose 82% and San Joaquin County 44%. Outside California, several states saw sharp increases, including New Jersey at 50%, Indiana at 30%, and Pennsylvania at 24%. The takeaway is not that any one lane is safe; it is that the risk is spreading into places that used to feel routine.
What the numbers mean for how you vet a carrier
Put the pieces together and a pattern emerges. Theft is being run more like a business, aimed at higher-value freight, increasingly through identity and paperwork rather than force, and across a wider geography. None of that is caught by confirming a carrier exists and has authority. It argues for confirming the things a strategic thief cannot easily fake: that the cargo policy is active and high enough for the load, and that the specific assigned driver and power unit are listed on it, checked at the source before the load moves. Our guides on avoiding cargo theft as a broker and carrier impersonation fraud go deeper on the tactics.
Confirm the coverage and the truck, at the source
Clear Path Verify confirms a carrier's cargo legal liability policy is active, meets your required limit, and lists the assigned driver and power unit, directly with the insurer or agent before a load moves, and sends you a time-stamped written report. It keys off the genuine policy, not a forwarded certificate, which is what strategic theft depends on. CPV confirms facts and does not guarantee coverage, eliminate theft risk, or determine liability.
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